Decide continue dating
The polarizing nature of Trump’s candidacy in particular is pushing many of the dynamics that have shaped the electoral competition since the 1990s to new heights.
With his brusque message of defensive nationalism, he is well positioned to extend the GOP advantage in some places where it is already strong, both demographically (working-class whites and evangelical Christians) and geographically (non-metropolitan areas, Appalachian and Interior Plains states).
With both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton facing unfavorable opinions from a majority of the voters, this has been a demolition derby of a campaign that has left both sides sputtering toward the finish line with dented fenders and cracked windshields.
Yet a race that has unfolded like no other still appears on track to reinforce and intensify the trends that have defined the competition for the White House over the past quarter-century.
But he appears certain to compound the party’s problems among voters (college-educated and secular whites, minorities, Millennials) and in places (the nation’s largest urban centers, coastal states) where the GOP was already facing crippling deficits.
In particular, the distance between blue-collar white voters drawn to Trump with passionate intensity and both the college whites and minorities resisting him may reach record heights.
But Republican gains, starting in the late 1960s, among whites without degrees and Democratic advances among college-educated whites, which accelerated in the 1990s, have reversed that pattern.
Starting with Al Gore in 2000, every Democratic nominee has won a higher share of the vote among whites with a college degree than whites without advanced education.
Hillary Clinton appears poised to break that record: Almost all pre-election polls have shown her leading among college-educated whites.A series of demographic and geographic factors will determine the result tomorrow, while also sending critical signals about the future direction of American politics.Together, those underlying elements amount to the tectonic plates of the 2016 election.Pre-election polls show that Trump has a strong chance to extend that advantage.The ultimate mark of success for him would be to rival Ronald Reagan’s dominant performance in 1984, when he won 66 percent of non-college-educated whites, beating Walter Mondale among those voters by 32 percentage points.